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9M-2020 Financial Results: Strong balance sheet and positive operational KPIs

Coface releases its 9M-2020 Financial Results : A strong balance sheet and positive operational KPIs allow to launch share buyback programme

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COVID-19, A CATALYST FOR POLITICAL RISKS

In addition to our Q3 2020 Country & Sector Risk updates, Coface's Political Risk Index highlights a dual trend: a decrease in the risk of conflict at a global level, but an increase in the risk of political and social fragility.

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COFACE REPORTS A POSITIVE NET INCOME OF €11.3M FOR THE SECOND QUARTER 2020 AND CONTINUES TO IMPLEMENT ITS STRATEGIC PLAN

Turnover for the first semester: €725m, down 0.6% at constant FX and perimeter:
Client retention and new business achieve record levels, with a positive net production of €33m.
First effects of re-pricing are now visible (+0.2%).
Revenues from services progress by 7%, including information services up by 13%.
Client activities continue to slowdown – a trend expected to continue over the following quarters.

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POST-PANDEMIC PRODUCTION RELOCATION: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CEE COUNTRIES?

Foreign trade and inclusion in supply chains had already increased in recent years, supported by EU membership by most CEE (Central and Eastern European) countries in 2004.

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Global Transport: What does the future hold beyond COVID-19?

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a mobility crisis, mainly because of physical distancing requirements and the necessity to avoid confined spaces, to limit the virus’propagation. This has had a disastrous impact on the global transport sector, with air passenger transport being the most affected segment.

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UNITED STATES: TWO-SPEED BUSINESS BANKRUPTCIES

As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country's GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021. Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.

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ASIA CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY 2020: COVID-19 WILL OVERTURN LAST YEAR’S INCIPIENT RECOVERY

After a 2019 that was dominated by trade tensions between the United States and China, Coface has observed an incipent recovery in Asia (excluding China), supported by supply chain shifts and additional liquidity from the US Federal Reserve.

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COFACE FINALISES THE ACQUISITION OF GIEK KREDITTFORSIKRING AS

Coface announces the closing of the acquisition of GIEK Kredittforsikring AS, a company that manages a short-term export credit insurance portfolio.

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ARE CORPORATE BALANCE SHEETS IN SPAIN AND ITALY READY FOR THE COVID-19 SHOCK?

Although the second quarter of 2020 is shaping up to be the most challenging period of the year, there are now good reasons to think that the road to recovery will be long and arduous. Despite immediate tax deferrals, liquidity guarantees, it is likely that many firms will find themselves in difficulty.

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BUSINESS INSOLVENCIES IN EUROPE: AMENDMENTS TO LEGAL PROCEDURES TEMPORARILY POSTPONE DUE DATES

Many European countries have temporarily amended the legal framework of default procedures to help companies deal with the crisis, postponing growth of insolvencies in Europe.

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COFACE BAROMETER: FROM A MASSIVE SHOCK TO A DIVERSIFIED RECOVERY

Coface forecasts that the recession in 2020 (a 4.4% drop in world GDP) will be stronger than that of 2009. Despite the recovery expected in 2021 (+5.1%) – assuming there is no second wave of the coronavirus pandemic – GDP would remain 2 to 5 points lower in the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, when compared to 2019 levels.

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CHINA PAYMENT SURVEY 2020: PAYMENT DELAYS WILL INCREASE FURTHER BECAUSE OF COVID-19

In the context of weaker activity in China due to the health crisis, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in China shows a deterioration in payment behaviour in 2019.
66% of surveyed companies reported payment delays. The length of payment delays remained stable at 86 days in 2019. Nevertheless, sectors that have been hit the most by lockdown measures will have to delay payments in order to survive in 2020 and the number of corporate insolvencies should increase.

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World Trade: despite a sudden interruption, global value chains still have a bright future

Early 2020 marked by a sudden interruption in world trade, hampered by a global recession and soaring uncertainty

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COVID-19 swings the spotlight back onto emerging countries’debt

While the focus has mainly been on China, Europe and the USA so far, the consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic are likely to be even more severe in emerging countries.

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First quarter shows solid operational performance but is impacted by the initial effects of the COVID-19 crisis

Xavier Durand, Coface CEO, commented: “The coronavirus crisis presents an unprecedented shock for our economies and for the credit insurance industry. First and foremost, I am very proud of our teams’ successful efforts to continue supporting our customers despite the containment measures (...)"

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COFACE BAROMETER: COVID-19 - HEADING TOWARDS A SUDDEN GLOBAL SURGE IN BUSINESS INSOLVENCIES

mediumAt first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic. Its repercussions have created a double shock – supply and demand – that is affecting a large number of industries all over the world. The uniqueness of this crisis makes comparisons with the previous ones useless, as they all had financial origins (e.g. global credit crisis of 2008-09, great depression of 1929). The question is no longer which countries and sectors of activity will be affected by this shock, but rather which few will be spared.

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FITCH PLACES COFACE ON RATING WATCH NEGATIVE

The ratings agency estimates that the adverse effects of the coronavirus pandemic will have a negative impact on the trade credit insurance industry, and that it is now more likely that Coface’s profitability, as measured by Fitch, will reach a level no longer compatible with the current rating.

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REVIEW OF THE CREDIT INSURANCE SECTOR BY MOODY'S

The rating agency Moody's confirmed Coface’s Insurance Financial Strength (IFS) A2 rating on 27 March 2020. The outlook for this rating has been changed to negative.

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Poland Payment Survey: reduced payment delays, but a challenging outlook

Despite the economic slowdown, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in Poland shows that payment delays have systematically shortened since 2017 – but the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Polish economy remains to be seen.

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COFACE CAPITALIZES ON ITS STRATEGIC SUCCESSES AND LAUNCHES BUILD TO LEAD, ITS NEW 2023 STRATEGIC PLAN

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