All Coface Publications
Germany Corporate Payment Survey 2020: German companies have switched to “crisis-mode” and offer less payment termsRead More
The COVID-19 crisis has triggered a discussion on increasing supply chain resilience to foreign supply shocks.
Before the pandemic’s arrival in Europe, a lockdown of factories that temporarily suspended manufacturing in China put the supply of intermediary goods at risk. In order to limit such risks, supply chain managers are likely to diversify their sources of supply.
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a mobility crisis, mainly because of physical distancing requirements and the necessity to avoid confined spaces, in order to limit the virus’ propagation. This has had a disastrous impact on the global transport sector, with air passenger transport being the most affected segment.
Spain and Italy will be amongst the economies hardest hit by COVID-19, contracting by 12.8% and 13.6% respectively in 2020, according to Coface’s forecasts. Taking a closer look at the health of Spanish and Italian corporate balance sheets should help identify pockets of vulnerability where widespread defaults are more likely to materialize.Read More
The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are of an unprecedented scale in Europe. The twin supply-demand shock has resulted in the halting of production (at least partially) in many companies as employees cannot go to work and in a fall in consumption because of mobility restrictions. The decline in revenues has deteriorated companies’ cash positions, fostering an increase in payment delays – and, ultimately, payment defaults.Read More
Our survey shows a deterioration in payment behaviour in 2019, which ultimately does not bode well for Chinese companies in the context of weaker activity in 2020. Coface expects growth to fall to 1.0%, the lowest level in 30 years, so given the historic correlation between economic activity and payment delays, we anticipate a sharp deterioration in 2020.Read More
In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, global trade has been dragged down by numerous factors. However, as tight border controls begin to ease and producers begin to adapt, the good news is that global value chains still have a bright future.Read More
Due to the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its impact on the global economy, it is unlikely that China will be able to achieve its 2020 growth target. Coface forecasts a growth rate of 4% for the Chinese economy in 2020.Read More
Recession or slight decline, CRAFT provides the keys to the slowdown in the major economies of the Eurozone.
Since the beginning of 2019, there have been increasing signs of a slowdown in global growth. While all economists agree on this downward trend, after reaching the peak of the cycle in 2017, the question mark now lies in the extent of this slowdown, particularly in the Eurozone. While some people mention a recession in 2020, most economists predict "only" a slight slowdown.
To have more clarity, it is therefore important to have reliable and innovative forecasting tools to take advantage of existing indicators. This is why Coface has decided to develop its own forecasting tool: CRAFT (Coface Research Activity Forecasting Tool).
This is the third edition of Coface’s survey on payment experience in Germany, done this summer, with 442 participating companies located in Germany. Our survey highlights that Germany is in a changing phase. The pressure on companies due to international competition is getting stronger. This is one of the reasons why German companies have increased their average credit period from 29.8 days to 35.9 days between 2017 and 2019.Read More
As usual, many political events marked the summer: another episode of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, an unexpected change of government in Italy, major demonstrations in Hong Kong and Russia, an ever more challenging continuation of the “Brexit” process and an attack on oil installations in Saudi Arabia.Read More
The agri-food sector (alongside the ICT sector), has been at the heart of the global trade war, aggravated by the fact that China’s retaliation measures have often targeted US soybean imports. As a consequence, the US agri-food sector, notably American soybean exporters are negatively impacted by this situation.Read More