Prior to the forthcoming presidential elections in August 2014, Coface is cautious in its assessment of corporate risks in Turkey. If political tensions rise again, as happened in December and January, investors may flee the country which could result in a fluctuation in Forex markets. Such a situation would negatively impact the corporate sector’s external debt stock, already at a record high.
Affected in 2009 by a recession more intense than other European countries under the effect of a sharp drop in household consumption and investment, the British economy is currently distinguished by the strength of renewed growth (1.8% in 2013). Forecast at +2.7% in 2014 by Coface, it could be as dynamic as that of the United States and exceed Germany (2%).
While the change from a service economy towards a diversified economy is gradual, the industrial renewal is underway. Despite several persistent weaknesses, Coface puts the country risk assessment of the UK at A2.
The first quarter of 2014 confirmed the acceleration in global growth: according to Coface's forecasts, after 2.6% in 2013, growth will be close to 3% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015. The eurozone (1.1% expected in 2014) is slowly but surely recovering from a serious double-dip. The US is showing dynamic and balanced growth (2.7% forecast in 2014), in spite of bad weather in January. A rebalancing of growth is therefore underway: advanced economies will contribute around a third of this (compared to only a quarter in 2013) and emerging countries two thirds.
It is in the context of this confirmed recovery that Coface has upgraded its assessments of several European and emerging economies.
Stabilization of corporate overdue payments in Asia Pacific but new worries over slowing growth in China07/01/2014
According to the Coface survey of credit risk management in Asia Pacific, corporate payment experience in the region stabilized overall in 2013, with the exception of companies in Australia and China which saw a greater number of non-payments. Slowing growth in China remains a concern for corporates in other economies in the region in 2014.
With comparable profiles in terms of entrepreneurial activity, Spain and France are following a worrying trend in terms of company insolvencies. However, SMEs in the two countries have evolved differently since the 2008-2009 crisis, and insolvency forecasts for 2014 further underline this divergence.